Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:28:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb43f…2db9 world 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 318d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%14W / 22L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$6
other 32% $0
politics 7% $0
economics 7% $0
weather 5% $0
crypto 2% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.4% -9.2% 17% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 9 +0.9% -8.7% 33% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 17 +0.7% -8.9% 41% 0% -8.7%
all 36 -0.1% -9.6% 39% 0% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.0%
10% -18.3% 0% -17.7%
15% -26.2% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.12 per $1 lost it wins $3.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

318d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses14 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage318d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $44 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $78 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $43 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $19 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 27 $7 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 27 $47 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $79 +$3 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $77 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $42 −$2 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $36 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $33 +$1 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 22 $36 +$1 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $3 $0 -3%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 08 $2 $0 -11%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 15 $2 $0 -4%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Aug 15 $9 $0 -2%
Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell in August? Aug 15 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Au Aug 15 $51 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Aug 13 $9 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 440–454 times August 8–August 15? Aug 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in August? Aug 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 40% on August 15 Aug 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 12 $69 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will a dozen eggs be between $4.00-4.25 in July? Aug 11 $33 $0 +1%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 380–394 times August 8–August 15? Aug 11 $34 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 11 $41 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $44 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $44 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 91¢ $40 9h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 89¢ $39 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $35 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $35 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $14 25h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $23 25h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $6 25h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $43 26h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $26 41h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $26 44h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $43 45h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $43 46h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $19 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $19 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 43¢ $0 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $25 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $4 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $19 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 39¢ $7 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 38¢ $7 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 84¢ $16 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 84¢ $22 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 77¢ $12 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 77¢ $23 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $39 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $39 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 27¢ $22 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 29¢ $24 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 126 history records