Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:25:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B4
0xb440…d514
crypto · 272 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$145 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$146 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$146
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses142 / 129
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)271 / 272
History coverage6d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day221.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 1 History 271 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$65
7 days−$146
14 days−$146
30 days−$146
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 0¢ 54¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C or below on June 8? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$4 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$6 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$7 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $13 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $14 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $23 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $27 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $27 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $23 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $23 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 93% −$140
other 4% −$1
world 2% $0
politics 1% −$1
sports 0% −$1
weather 0% −$3
tech 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 17m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 271 -19.2% -26.9% 52% 18% -18.0%
≤30d 271 -19.2% -26.9% 52% 18% -18.0%
≤90d 271 -19.2% -26.9% 52% 18% -18.0%
all 271 -19.2% -26.9% 52% 18% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover221.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.9% 18% -18.0%
10% ← realistic here -33.9% 13% -25.8%
15% -40.3% 6% -33.0%
20% -46.1% 3% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.91 · official $1.25 (match) · 1441 history records