Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:03:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb442…69af sports 198 markets active 2h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$83 (-4%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%91W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$14
14 days+$6
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$103
other 14% −$52
politics 11% +$24
crypto 2% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +7.9% -2.4% 67% 67% -14.3%
≤30d 30 +10.8% +0.3% 57% 57% -1.5%
≤90d 195 -9.9% -18.4% 47% 47% -15.9%
all 195 -9.9% -18.4% 47% 47% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 47% -15.9%
10% -26.3% 46% -23.9%
15% -33.4% 44% -31.3%
20% -39.9% 39% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses91 / 104
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)195 / 198
History coverage77d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 195 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $112 −$67 -60%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$15 +291%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $5 +$4 +76%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $5 +$5 +105%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 09 $5 +$5 +90%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $169 +$57 +34%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $5 +$6 +119%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 06 $5 +$5 +101%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 112.5 Jun 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $15 +$20 +129%
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H Moneyline May 31 $5 +$6 +124%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 May 30 $5 −$5 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $10 +$4 +38%
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners May 22 $5 +$4 +70%
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins May 22 $5 +$4 +70%
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 22 $5 +$4 +76%
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies May 22 $5 +$4 +83%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 22 $5 +$5 +90%
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 110.5 May 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres May 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 May 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres May 04 $5 +$3 +62%
Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 May 04 $5 +$4 +86%
Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners May 03 $5 −$5 -98%
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels May 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics May 03 $5 −$5 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Det May 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers May 03 $10 −$10 -98%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $10 +$17 +165%
Stars vs. Wild May 01 $10 +$8 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 21¢ $45 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Portugal leading at halftime? AND Will BUY 35¢ $5 4h
Portugal leading at halftime? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY 35¢ $5 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $112 12h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 25h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $10 14d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 14d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 14d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026 BUY 54¢ $5 15d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $5 15d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 15d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 16d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $5 16d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $5 16d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 16d
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline BUY Knicks 52¢ $5 19d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 19d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $5 19d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 77¢ $81 19d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY San Francisco Giants 42¢ $5 21d
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Chicago White Sox 45¢ $5 21d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 46¢ $5 21d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 BUY Under 49¢ $5 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 112.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 24d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 24d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 BUY Yes 52¢ $5 28d
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H Moneyline BUY Spurs 44¢ $5 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 385 history records