Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:35:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B4 0xb442…5cba crypto 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$16 (+13%) realized +$18 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate27%4W / 11L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$25
crypto 40% −$11
sports 6% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-56.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -51.6% -56.2% 27% 20% +1.0%
≤30d 15 -51.6% -56.2% 27% 20% +1.0%
≤90d 15 -51.6% -56.2% 27% 20% +1.0%
all 15 -51.6% -56.2% 27% 20% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -56.2% 20% +1.0%
10% -60.4% 20% -8.7%
15% -64.3% 13% -17.5%
20% -67.8% 13% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -62% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$2 · ×3.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses4 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage4d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$4 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $17 +$21 +123%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 15 $2 $0 -24%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $12 +$11 +89%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $22 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $16 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 24h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $39 24h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $17 3d
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals SELL Yes 9¢ $2 3d
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $12 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.03 · official $30.03 (match) · 29 history records