Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:18:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B4 0xb44a…51a7 other 99 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$175 (+13%) realized +$176 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%30W / 52L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day35.0pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$309
other 33% −$39
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 +16.3% +5.3% 37% 37% +10.3%
≤30d 82 +16.3% +5.3% 37% 37% +10.3%
≤90d 82 +16.3% +5.3% 37% 37% +10.3%
all 82 +16.3% +5.3% 37% 37% +10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.3% 37% +10.3%
10% ← realistic here -4.8% 37% -0.2%
15% -14.0% 35% -9.9%
20% -22.4% 32% -18.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$10 · ×2.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$154
Realized+$176
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses30 / 52
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions15
Markets (closed)82 / 99
History coverage3d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day35.0
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 78¢ 78¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Over 66¢ 68¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Yes 34¢ 36¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Under 49¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Over 44¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Sweden win on 2026- Jun 15 $5 +$108 +2109%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 +$31 +124%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $35 +$14 +40%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 +$18 +173%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $10 +$10 +99%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$1 -7%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $35 −$35 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$16 +151%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $40 +$14 +36%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $51 +$26 +50%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 +$35 +344%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $40 +$21 +52%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$26 +129%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $30 +$29 +96%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$22 +109%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $20 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 73¢ $20 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $20 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 78¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 3h
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 6h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end i BUY 5¢ $5 8h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 76¢ $28 8h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 9h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 2 Tunisia? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 9h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? SELL Yes 23¢ $20 9h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 9h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 9h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 10h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 10h
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 10h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 27¢ $10 10h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 11h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 11h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $25 11h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $35 11h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 12h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 13h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $20 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.37 · official $159.37 · 144 history records