Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:41:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb44e…6909 world 30 markets active 4d ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$27 (-35%) realized −$24 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate38%11W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$22
14 days−$24
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$20
world 28% −$1
crypto 12% −$6
sports 4% −$1
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-37.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -41.1% -46.7% 33% 20% -49.7%
≤30d 29 -31.1% -37.7% 38% 28% -42.2%
≤90d 29 -31.1% -37.7% 38% 28% -42.2%
all 29 -31.1% -37.7% 38% 28% -42.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.7% 28% -42.2%
10% -43.6% 7% -47.7%
15% -49.1% 3% -52.8%
20% -54.1% 3% -57.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses11 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage19d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 +$7 +109%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 $0 -21%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Jun 12 $2 −$1 -49%
Will Olivia Rodrigo have a #1 hit in the US in June? Jun 12 $17 −$14 -86%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 12 $1 $0 -37%
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -68%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $8 −$4 -45%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +28%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $1 $0 +8%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $5 +$1 +11%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox May 27 $1 $0 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 27 $1 $0 -40%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? May 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $1 $0 +3%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 26 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -98%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26? May 25 $1 $0 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 25 $2 $0 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 25 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $3 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 5d
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch SELL Darwin Blanch 95¢ $1 5d
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch BUY Henrique Rocha 14¢ $1 5d
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch BUY Darwin Blanch 86¢ $1 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 5d
Will Olivia Rodrigo have a #1 hit in the US in June? SELL No 1¢ $2 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 5d
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 3¢ $0 5d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? SELL No 99¢ $1 5d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 6d
Will Olivia Rodrigo have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY No 3¢ $4 6d
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $4 6d
Will Olivia Rodrigo have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY No 3¢ $1 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 6d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 6d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.41 · official $0.41 (match) · 79 history records