Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:49:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B4 0xb44f…f342 crypto 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$333 (+2%) realized +$333 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate99%118W / 1L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day45.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$340
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 119 +0.8% -8.8% 99% 3% -8.0%
≤30d 119 +0.8% -8.8% 99% 3% -8.0%
≤90d 119 +0.8% -8.8% 99% 3% -8.0%
all 119 +0.8% -8.8% 99% 3% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 3% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 2% -16.8%
15% -25.5% 0% -24.8%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×137.18 per $1 lost it wins $137.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$333
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses118 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)119 / 119
History coverage4d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day45.4
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 119 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 20 $135 +$15 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $149 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $149 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 20 $146 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $124 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $124 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 20 $123 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $124 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $124 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $124 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 20 $124 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 20 $124 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 20 $124 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $124 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $124 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $124 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $124 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $123 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 20 $124 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $124 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $124 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $117 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $124 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $124 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $124 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $124 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $124 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $124 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 20 $124 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 20 $122 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 20 $124 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 20 $124 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 20 $124 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 20 $125 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 20 $125 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $123 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $123 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $124 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $124 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 19 $124 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 19 $124 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $124 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 19 $124 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 19 $124 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 19 $124 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 19 $125 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 19 $124 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 19 $124 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $119 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 19 $119 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $135 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $149 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $149 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $146 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $124 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $124 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $123 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $124 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $124 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $124 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $124 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $124 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $124 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $124 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $124 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $14 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $59 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 340 history records