Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:05:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B4 0xb44f…884b world 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate50%19W / 19L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$1
other 19% +$1
politics 6% $0
crypto 4% $0
sports 4% +$1
culture 2% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 +0.3% -9.2% 41% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 17 +0.3% -9.2% 41% 0% -9.3%
all 38 +1.8% -7.9% 50% 5% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 5% -9.3%
10% -16.7% 3% -18.0%
15% -24.7% 3% -25.9%
20% -32.1% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses19 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage465d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $68 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $37 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $38 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $40 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $33 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $32 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $12 +$1 +6%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $34 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $17 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $32 +$1 +3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 22 $2 $0 +1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 29 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 19 $11 $0 +2%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? May 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? May 14 $11 $0 -4%
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL? May 11 $12 $0 +2%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 10 $12 −$1 -7%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? May 09 $1 $0 -16%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 09 $10 $0 -1%
Will Pacers vs. Warriors be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 09 $2 +$1 +62%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $103000 on May 9? May 08 $12 $0 -4%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 2–9? May 07 $12 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1500 and $1600 on May 9? May 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 07 $1 $0 +18%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $12 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 11 $2 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $33 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 15h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $34 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $34 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $20 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $13 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $34 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $34 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $34 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $37 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $37 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $38 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $38 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $3 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $2 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $37 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $36 6d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 8d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $27 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $4 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $32 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $34 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $34 9d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL No 72¢ $5 9d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL No 72¢ $29 9d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY No 72¢ $6 10d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY No 72¢ $28 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.87 · official $32.89 (match) · 107 history records