Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:10:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B4 0xb450…2f41 crypto 550 markets active 0h ago coverage 587d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$124 (-0%) realized −$124 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate62%340W / 210L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$33
14 days−$33
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$401
sports 3% +$11
other 1% −$38
politics 0% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +10.3% -0.2% 75% 38% -15.0%
≤30d 32 +10.3% -0.2% 75% 38% -15.0%
≤90d 524 -2.0% -11.3% 61% 50% -11.7%
all 550 -1.9% -11.3% 62% 48% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 48% -10.8%
10% -19.8% 37% -19.3%
15% -27.5% 29% -27.1%
20% -34.6% 19% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$17 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

587d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$124
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses340 / 210
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)550 / 550
History coverage587d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 550 Trades
no open positions (108 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +89%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $17 +$7 +38%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $82 −$81 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $29 +$33 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $70 −$14 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $60 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$4 +19%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$9 +92%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $19 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 09 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 09 $40 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 09 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 09 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 09 $40 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 09 $226 −$187 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 09 $41 −$20 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 09 $41 −$8 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 09 $60 −$19 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 09 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 09 $21 +$12 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 09 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 09 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 09 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 09 $41 −$15 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 09 $240 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 09 $232 +$16 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 5h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 12h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 13h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 13h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $23 13h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 13h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $82 40h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $29 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 100¢ $49 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 82¢ $40 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1537 history records