Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:05:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B4 0xb450…2808 crypto 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 550d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate76%44W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$11
crypto 15% +$2
politics 4% −$1
sports 1% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 58 +0.1% -9.5% 76% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

550d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses44 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage550d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $78 $78 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $72 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? May 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 04 $67 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? Apr 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Apr 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Apr 01 $54 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? Mar 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? Mar 03 $57 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Feb 01 $7 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in January? Feb 01 $64 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? Jan 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,250 in December? Jan 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in December? Jan 02 $57 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? Dec 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $260 in November? Dec 03 $58 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? Nov 03 $12 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 03 $24 $0 +2%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? Nov 03 $44 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? Oct 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Oct 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? Oct 04 $42 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? Sep 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? Sep 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? Sep 01 $57 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? Aug 03 $71 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? Jul 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? Jul 01 $41 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.14 in May? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in May? Jun 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? Jun 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ireland win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $5,435 −$11 -0%
Trump severs ties with Ukraine before May? May 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 150% and 200% on April 3 May 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 04 $4 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? May 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in April? May 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 04 $7 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 19 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in the next Apr 18 $27 $0 -0%
Will another party win the most seats in the next Australian parliamen Apr 15 $23 $0 -0%
Will Kim Dong-yeon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 11 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Green Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian Apr 09 $27 $0 -0%
Will Solana hit $190 in March? Apr 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Apr 01 $20 $0 +1%
Will Diana Șoșoacă win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will Jarred McCain win NBA Rookie of the Year? Mar 18 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers finish with the worst regular season recor Mar 17 $17 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 08 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $78 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $72 30d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? BUY No 100¢ $6 61d
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? BUY No 100¢ $12 62d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $67 62d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? BUY No 99¢ $6 90d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $20 91d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $54 92d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? BUY No 100¢ $15 122d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? BUY No 100¢ $57 122d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 99¢ $7 148d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 149d
Will Solana reach $200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $64 149d
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $4 180d
Will BNB reach $1,250 in December? BUY No 100¢ $26 181d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in December? BUY No 100¢ $57 182d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? BUY No 100¢ $18 211d
Will Solana reach $260 in November? BUY No 100¢ $58 211d
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? BUY No 100¢ $12 240d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 98¢ $24 241d
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? BUY No 100¢ $44 242d
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? BUY No 100¢ $14 271d
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? BUY No 100¢ $19 272d
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? BUY No 99¢ $42 273d
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? BUY No 100¢ $12 300d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? BUY No 100¢ $14 301d
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? BUY No 100¢ $57 302d
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $24 333d
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $47 333d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? BUY No 100¢ $27 362d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.87 · official $77.87 (match) · 123 history records