Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:10:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B4 0xb452…547e other 107 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,980 (+2%) realized +$1,980 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate79%82W / 22L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$802per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$265now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% +$43
politics 26% +$37
sports 17% +$1,886
world 14% +$7
crypto 5% +$2
culture 4% +$3
tech 2% $0
economics 1% +$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 20 -3.2% -12.4% 85% 10% -8.9%
≤90d 34 -1.7% -11.0% 91% 6% -9.1%
all 104 +0.5% -9.1% 79% 3% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 3% -7.4%
10% -17.8% 3% -16.3%
15% -25.7% 2% -24.4%
20% -33.0% 1% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$1,837) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$1 · ×30.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×224.47 per $1 lost it wins $224.47
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$265
Realized+$1,980
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses82 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)104 / 107
History coverage135d
Avg bet$802
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curacao reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $144 $144 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $66 $66 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana reach $150 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Julian Champagnie win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will Josh Hart win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will Stephon Castle win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will Mikal Bridges win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will Dylan Harper win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $129 $0 +0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $19 −$7 -37%
Will Trump say "NBA" or "Basketball" during Tele-Rally? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Get Out And Vote" during Tele-Rally? Jun 08 $72 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Poll" 2+ times during Tele-Rally? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will White House post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12, Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $96 +$8 +8%
Will Trump say "Pig" during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $84 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Iran" 5+ times during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $30 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $17 +$4 +22%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" 3+ times during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $85 −$1 -1%
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $70B and $80B at market close on Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Figure's humanoid robot push at least 12000 packages during the o Jun 05 $1 $0 +41%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $131 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 16 $79 $0 +0%
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $60B and $70B at market close on May 14 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 12 $122 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? May 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in April? May 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Atlanta Hawks advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NB May 01 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Tesla reach $555 in April? Apr 30 $31 $0 +0%
Will "Bomb" be said 100+ times during the CS IEM Rio 2026 Grand Final? Apr 21 $121 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from April 7 to April Apr 19 $56 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from April 7 to April 1 Apr 19 $64 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Apr 04 $120 $0 +0%
Will White House post 20-39 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Mar 31 $120 $0 +0%
Will White House post 60-79 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 24 $119 $0 +0%
Will Powell say "Pandemic" during March press conference? Mar 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Powell say "Food" or "Energy" 3+ times during March press confere Mar 18 $383 +$1 +0%
Will Powell say "Recession" during March press conference? Mar 18 $549 +$1 +0%
Will Chelsea reach the UEFA Champions League final? Mar 18 $2,094 +$4 +0%
Will "One Battle After Another" win 3 or fewer awards at the Oscars? Mar 17 $623 +$1 +0%
Will "Alien" be said at the Oscars? Mar 16 $2,093 +$2 +0%
Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 2 awards at the Oscars? Mar 16 $476 $0 +0%
Will "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" be said at the Oscars? Mar 16 $27 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March Mar 15 $2,090 +$2 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March Mar 13 $2,088 +$2 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March Mar 11 $552 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from March 6 to March Mar 11 $1,534 +$2 +0%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $2,082 +$4 +0%
Will the Climate fund initiative be approved in Switzerland’s 8 March Mar 10 $266 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 9? Mar 10 $360 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curacao reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $144 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $66 1h
Will Solana reach $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $55 1h
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $129 16d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $12 16d
Will Trump say "Get Out And Vote" during Tele-Rally? BUY Yes 100¢ $72 16d
Will Trump say "NBA" or "Basketball" during Tele-Rally? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Trump say "NBA" or "Basketball" during Tele-Rally? BUY No 100¢ $30 16d
Will Trump say "Poll" 2+ times during Tele-Rally? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 16d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $72 19d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 19d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $30 19d
Will Dylan Harper win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 100¢ $30 19d
Will Mikal Bridges win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 100¢ $15 19d
Will Stephon Castle win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 99¢ $20 19d
Will Julian Champagnie win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 100¢ $40 19d
Will Josh Hart win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 100¢ $30 19d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 19d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $20 19d
Will Trump say "Pig" during Wisconsin events? BUY No 100¢ $84 19d
Will Trump say "Nuclear" 3+ times during Wisconsin events? SELL No 98¢ $78 19d
Will Trump say "Nuclear" 3+ times during Wisconsin events? SELL No 98¢ $6 19d
Will Trump say "Nuclear" 3+ times during Wisconsin events? BUY No 99¢ $85 19d
Will Trump say "Iran" 5+ times during Wisconsin events? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 19d
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12, BUY No 100¢ $5 19d
Will White House post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 19d
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 19d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 100¢ $131 30d
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $60B and $70B at market close on SELL Yes 100¢ $50 42d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $79 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $264.60 · official $264.60 (match) · 492 history records