trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | +4.2% | -5.7% | 43% | 14% | -8.6% |
| ≤30d | 10 | +3.0% | -6.8% | 40% | 10% | -8.8% |
| ≤90d | 10 | +3.0% | -6.8% | 40% | 10% | -8.8% |
| all | 25 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 52% | 8% | -8.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.5% | 8% | -8.7% |
| 10% | -18.2% | 4% | -17.5% |
| 15% | -26.1% | 0% | -25.4% |
| 20% | -33.3% | 0% | -32.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | No | 88¢ | 89¢ | $27 | $27 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 58¢ | 56¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-4%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 18 | $31 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 15 | $95 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 14 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 14 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 13 | $43 | $0 | -1% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 13 | $4 | $0 | +2% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 12 | $8 | +$2 | +29% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 11 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 10 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 10 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? | Dec 15 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Jun 25 | $12 | −$1 | -7% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? | Jun 02 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? | May 19 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? | May 17 | $11 | +$1 | +9% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 07 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the AFD be part of the next German government? | Apr 21 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? | Apr 21 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? | Apr 20 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Apr 18 | $9 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? | Apr 17 | $2 | −$1 | -29% |
| Will Scott Bessent be out as Secretary of the Treasury in Trump's firs | Apr 16 | $11 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Kentucky win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Mar 30 | $12 | +$2 | +13% |
| Will Trump say "the blacks" by March 28? | Mar 26 | $13 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? | Mar 23 | $1 | $0 | -25% |