Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:03:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B4 0xb456…ee27 crypto 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$42 (+11%) realized +$21 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day17.7pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% +$48
other 11% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -8.0% -16.8% 43% 43% +3.0%
≤30d 14 -8.0% -16.8% 43% 43% +3.0%
≤90d 14 -8.0% -16.8% 43% 43% +3.0%
all 14 -8.0% -16.8% 43% 43% +3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 43% +3.0%
10% -24.8% 43% -6.8%
15% -32.0% 43% -15.8%
20% -38.7% 36% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$13 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day17.7
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 21¢ 32¢ $42 $63 +$21 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $51 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$71 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$13 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$27 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$13 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$17 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $38 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 32h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 21¢ $43 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $39 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $27 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $35 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.00 · official $63.00 (match) · 39 history records