Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:09:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb45a…6c15 other 25 markets active 4d ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$29 (-14%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%15W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$75
sports 33% −$7
crypto 2% +$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +6.1% -4.0% 83% 83% -37.3%
≤30d 25 +38.5% +25.3% 60% 60% -22.6%
≤90d 25 +38.5% +25.3% 60% 60% -22.6%
all 25 +38.5% +25.3% 60% 60% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.3% 60% -22.6%
10% +13.3% 40% -30.0%
15% +2.3% 20% -36.7%
20% -7.7% 16% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +97% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses15 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage5d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $26 −$26 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $7 +$1 +17%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $5 +$1 +23%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +24%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $5 +$3 +57%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $17 −$10 -60%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $3 +$2 +97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 $0 +18%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $12 +$3 +30%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $6 +$4 +59%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $8 +$2 +32%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 16 $16 −$16 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 −$4 -79%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $8 +$2 +26%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 +$1 +19%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +12%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$52 +1464%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $26 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 85¢ $7 6d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $10 6d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 81¢ $5 6d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $8 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $5 6d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $5 6d
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $10 7d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 68¢ $8 7d
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 SELL Over 67¢ $7 7d
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $7 7d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $3 7d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes $0 7d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $18 7d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes $1 7d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $5 7d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 8d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $5 8d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $10 8d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 8d
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $16 8d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 62¢ $6 8d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 75¢ $8 8d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $8 8d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 8d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 10¢ $1 8d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 79¢ $8 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records