trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 5 | -0.0% | -9.6% | 20% | 0% | -9.6% |
| all | 26 | +3.4% | -6.4% | 65% | 4% | -9.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -6.4% | 4% | -9.0% |
| 10% | -15.4% | 4% | -17.7% |
| 15% | -23.6% | 4% | -25.7% |
| 20% | -31.1% | 4% | -33.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C or below on June 30? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $160 | $160 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? | Apr 12 | $541 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Apr 09 | $724 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Apr 06 | $779 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Apr 04 | $508 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on | Apr 01 | $63 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Mar 28 | $498 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Mar 21 | $466 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Mar 17 | $524 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Mar 17 | $641 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Mar 15 | $540 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C or below on March 7? | Mar 07 | $30 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? | Mar 02 | $22 | $0 | +0% |
| Heat vs. 76ers | Feb 27 | $43 | +$35 | +82% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? | Feb 19 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of January 2026? | Feb 19 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C or below on February 3? | Feb 19 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 42°C on February 3? | Feb 19 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Maduro out in 2025? | Jan 21 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| John Bolton in jail in 2025? | Jan 21 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C or higher on Janu | Jan 21 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? | Jan 21 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on January 9? | Jan 21 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 40°C on January 12? | Jan 21 | $40 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C or below on January 10 | Jan 21 | $86 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 41°C or higher on Dece | Dec 31 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on December 28? | Dec 28 | $15 | $0 | +0% |