Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:31:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B4 0xb45b…ddc7 crypto 1742 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$622 (-5%) realized −$622 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate63%1102W / 640L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day43.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$6
14 days−$151
30 days−$267
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$522
other 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 109 -1.6% -10.9% 51% 50% -10.3%
≤30d 1137 -2.7% -12.0% 61% 57% -12.3%
≤90d 1742 -4.1% -13.3% 63% 44% -13.2%
all 1742 -4.1% -13.3% 63% 44% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 44% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 42% -21.5%
15% -29.1% 37% -29.1%
20% -36.1% 28% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$622
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses1102 / 640
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1742 / 1742
History coverage48d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day43.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1742 Trades
no open positions (442 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -24%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -57%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -44%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -44%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -17%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +57%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -38%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -41%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -29%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -33%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -39%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +68%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -32%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +76%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -33%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +68%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -44%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -54%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +47%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -36%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -28%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -30%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +44%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -40%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -43%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -60%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -40%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -48%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -40%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -44%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 20m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $4 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 26m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 31m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $2 32m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 35m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $3 40m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 41m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $3 45m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 45m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $4 50m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 50m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 56m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records