Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:20:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb45c…375c world 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+2%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate47%16W / 18L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$1
other 23% +$17
politics 17% +$1
sports 5% $0
tech 4% $0
weather 3% $0
finance 3% −$5
crypto 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.8% -10.3% 25% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 12 -3.5% -12.7% 42% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 14 -3.1% -12.3% 36% 0% -10.8%
all 34 +7.0% -3.2% 47% 3% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 3% -7.9%
10% -12.5% 3% -16.7%
15% -20.9% 3% -24.7%
20% -28.7% 3% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.6 per $1 lost it wins $2.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses16 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage468d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $28 −$1 -4%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 26 $24 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $12 $0 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $28 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $29 +$1 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $21 −$5 -23%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 22 $1 $0 -22%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 21 $16 $0 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 20 $31 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 19 $34 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Trump Admin confirms Aliens exist in first 100 days? Apr 11 $29 $0 +0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Apr 10 $26 $0 +0%
Will Justin Thomas win The 2025 Masters? Apr 10 $7 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? Apr 10 $29 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Apr 09 $5 −$1 -20%
Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 09 $29 $0 -0%
Will Tom Kim win The 2025 Masters? Apr 08 $34 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Apr 08 $34 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 07 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 31 $34 $0 +0%
Trump meets with Carney in March? Mar 28 $33 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 48°F or below on March 25? Mar 26 $24 $0 +2%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 26 $10 $0 -2%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 23 $6 +$17 +286%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Mar 21 $16 $0 +1%
Will Club Brugge or Aston Villa advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 14 $13 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 62¢ $27 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $6 4h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $22 4h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 80¢ $31 9h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 80¢ $31 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 17h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $28 21h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $28 24h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 29h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 31h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $10 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $18 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $19 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $9 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 19¢ $14 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 19¢ $10 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $24 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $13 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $12 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $4 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $24 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $28 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $30 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $29 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $13 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 116 history records