Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:22:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B4 0xb45e…605f sports 265 markets active 0h ago coverage 94d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 93d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,549 (+0%) realized +$2,319 · open +$230
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate89%236W / 28L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,755per market
Trades / day34.3pace
Fees−$1,213est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$6,205now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 94d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% −$742
finance 24% +$13,410
other 23% −$8,046
politics 7% +$2,613
world 4% −$11,890
tech 2% −$2,116
economics 1% +$28
culture 1% +$503
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -2.7% -12.0% 88% 12% -17.9%
≤30d 113 +4.0% -5.9% 94% 27% -6.9%
≤90d 262 +0.5% -9.1% 90% 25% -10.1%
all 264 +0.2% -9.3% 89% 25% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 25% -10.3%
10% -18.0% 10% -18.9%
15% ← realistic here -25.9% 4% -26.7%
20% -33.2% 3% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$3,448) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$312 vs −$2,863 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$6,205
Realized+$2,319
Unrealized+$230
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses236 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$1,213
Open positions1
Markets (closed)264 / 265
History coverage94d ⚠
Avg bet$2,755
Trades / day34.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 264 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan India 90¢ 94¢ $5,975 $6,205 +$230 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,822 +$14 +0%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11,301 +$346 +3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $4,710 +$3,708 +79%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $2,746 −$2,661 -97%
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 16 $9,334 +$863 +9%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $12,457 −$12,399 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4,272 +$43 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $7,405 +$732 +10%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $916 +$84 +9%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $12,324 +$937 +8%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,294 +$74 +6%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $1,144 +$151 +13%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $7,960 +$323 +4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $1,460 +$40 +3%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Malawi Jun 10 $1,426 +$51 +4%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: United Arab Emirates vs Malaysia Jun 10 $1,349 +$54 +4%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Lancashire Jun 10 $4,095 +$8 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $837 +$63 +8%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $1,201 +$121 +10%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $1,818 +$180 +10%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Philippines vs United Arab Emirates Jun 09 $1,377 +$15 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? Jun 09 $5,412 +$50 +1%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $3,351 +$528 +16%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Nepal vs Hong Kong, China Jun 08 $1,140 +$57 +5%
Will India win? Jun 08 $2,860 +$253 +9%
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 07 $4,383 +$120 +3%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $1,574 +$26 +2%
T20 Blast: Middlesex vs Essex Jun 07 $4,424 +$55 +1%
Will England win? Jun 07 $13,475 +$848 +6%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $923 +$18 +2%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $180 +$4 +2%
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 06 $4,965 +$35 +1%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Nepal vs Hong Kong, China Jun 06 $1,921 +$268 +14%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 06 $8,543 +$4,382 +51%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Oman vs Hong Kong, China Jun 05 $2,776 +$908 +33%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 4? Jun 05 $1,543 +$80 +5%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $3,605 −$3,605 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 04 $5,718 +$299 +5%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 04 $5,974 +$1,026 +17%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $990 +$10 +1%
Will Poland win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $971 +$28 +3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $1,980 +$18 +1%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $677 −$621 -92%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Netherlands Jun 03 $450 +$50 +11%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Bahrain vs Myanmar Jun 03 $4,438 +$1,177 +26%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 2? Jun 03 $657 +$33 +5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 2? Jun 03 $2,244 +$175 +8%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 2? Jun 03 $2,985 +$59 +2%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 02 $884 −$883 -100%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh Jun 02 $405 +$95 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 89¢ $437 11m
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 92¢ $1,755 25m
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 92¢ $7 27m
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 92¢ $44 28m
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 92¢ $29 29m
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 92¢ $5 31m
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 93¢ $932 32m
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $880 2h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $220 3h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $268 3h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $37 3h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $37 3h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $100 3h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 100¢ $498 3h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 100¢ $398 3h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 100¢ $1,927 3h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $88 3h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $39 3h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $36 3h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $36 3h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $36 3h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $36 3h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $36 3h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $36 3h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $36 3h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $36 3h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $36 3h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $36 3h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $36 3h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $22 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,205.04 · official $6,205.04 (match) · 3500 history records