Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:11:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb45f…c7e7 politics 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 317d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate29%9W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$1
politics 22% +$1
crypto 18% $0
other 17% $0
weather 2% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.3% -10.7% 14% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 8 -1.1% -10.5% 12% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 8 -1.1% -10.5% 12% 0% -9.8%
all 31 -0.1% -9.6% 29% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 3% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

317d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses9 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage317d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $2 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $4 $0 -8%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $72 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $64 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $43 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $51 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $42 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above $115,000 on August 11? Aug 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in US? Aug 14 $7 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? Aug 13 $22 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 13 $50 $0 -0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 13 $1 $0 +22%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 13 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 13 $7 $0 -0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 87°F or higher on August 13? Aug 13 $22 $0 +1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 12 $49 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $123K on August 12 at 5PM ET Aug 12 $3 −$1 -17%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 12 $56 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 11 $60 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Aug 10 $62 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $119K on August 6? Aug 10 $67 +$1 +1%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Aug 09 $6 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 07 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $42 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $42 6h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $42 7h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $39 21h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $39 24h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 30h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 33h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $4 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $42 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $42 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $6 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $6 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $16 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $29 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $43 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $43 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $36 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $8 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $43 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $7 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $3 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 19¢ $8 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $21 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $21 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $42 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $42 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 57¢ $42 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 58¢ $43 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.86 · official $41.86 (match) · 96 history records