Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:46:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B4
0xb45f…c7ca
crypto · 1003 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,033 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,030 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$1,030
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses432 / 563
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)995 / 1003
History coverage79d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day23.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 3 History 995 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$23
14 days−$40
30 days−$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$4 +140%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 06 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 06 $4 +$8 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 06 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 06 $6 +$5 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 06 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 05 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 05 $3 +$7 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 05 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$5 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 05 $4 +$5 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 05 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 05 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 05 $4 +$6 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$7 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 03 $4 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$7 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 03 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 31 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 30 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 30 $2 +$2 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$1,027
other 1% −$2
politics 0% −$3
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 30m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 39m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 45m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 53m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 8¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL 20¢ $1 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 25¢ $2 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -39.6% -45.3% 28% 28% -41.8%
≤30d 96 -32.6% -39.0% 32% 32% -36.4%
≤90d 995 -16.0% -24.0% 43% 41% -20.0%
all 995 -16.0% -24.0% 43% 41% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover23.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.0% 41% -20.0%
10% ← realistic here -31.3% 36% -27.6%
15% -37.9% 33% -34.6%
20% -44.0% 28% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.80 · official $3.88 · 2152 history records