Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:36:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B4 0xb460…bfbc other 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$796 (+15%) realized +$758 · open +$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate51%26W / 25L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$678now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$167
7 days+$233
14 days+$385
30 days+$719
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$280
sports 35% +$61
politics 7% +$383
crypto 5% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -12.9% -21.2% 50% 25% -1.4%
≤30d 51 -2.4% -11.7% 51% 35% +4.9%
≤90d 51 -2.4% -11.7% 51% 35% +4.9%
all 51 -2.4% -11.7% 51% 35% +4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 35% +4.9%
10% -20.1% 25% -5.2%
15% -27.8% 22% -14.3%
20% -34.9% 18% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$16 · ×2.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.85 per $1 lost it wins $2.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$678
Realized+$758
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses26 / 25
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)51 / 54
History coverage22d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $500 $508 +$8 (+2%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 60¢ $90 $120 +$30 (+33%)
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? No 88¢ 90¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $331 +$56 +17%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$5 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +8%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $31 +$146 +474%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $501 +$38 +8%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$2 -17%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $151 +$67 +44%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $400 +$9 +2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $201 +$36 +18%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $26 −$23 -91%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $182 +$18 +10%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $579 +$20 +4%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $38 +$65 +171%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $135 +$65 +48%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $400 +$14 +3%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $60 −$59 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $77 +$23 +30%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$50 +474%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $400 +$11 +3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $17 −$16 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $109 +$9 +8%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $23 +$7 +30%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 +$9 +84%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $25 +$5 +20%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -84%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $24 −$23 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $38 +$62 +165%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $35 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 -2%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 10 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%? Jun 09 $158 +$121 +77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 51¢ $30 1h
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 97¢ $200 1h
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 98¢ $300 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 52¢ $41 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 89¢ $301 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 2h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 24h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 2d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 93¢ $301 2d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 73¢ $40 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 4d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 65¢ $20 4d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 98¢ $400 5d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 52¢ $51 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $678.19 · official $678.19 (match) · 162 history records