Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:32:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

B4 0xb460…6e64 sports 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 66d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$513 (+18%) realized +$516 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip

Net edge-19%after slip

Net WR48%break-even

Win rate48%12W / 13L

Drawdown62%max

Avg bet$94per market

Trades / day1.4pace

Fees−$31est.

Kalshi-fit84%portable

Net worth$347now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$276

7 days+$344

14 days+$344

30 days+$344

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +48%

net ROI/market (all)-18.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	24	-6.5%	-15.4%	50%	50%	+6.6%
≤30d	24	-6.5%	-15.4%	50%	50%	+6.6%
≤90d	25	-10.3%	-18.8%	48%	48%	+6.3%
all	25	-10.3%	-18.8%	48%	48%	+6.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-18.8%	48%	+6.3%
10%	-26.6%	48%	-3.9%
15%	-33.7%	40%	-13.2%
20%	-40.2%	28%	-21.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -10% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -14% → late -7% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$76 vs −$44 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage

Net worth$347

Realized+$516

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)48%

Wins / losses12 / 13

Est. fees paid−$31

Open positions6

Markets (closed)25 / 31

History coverage66d

Avg bet$94

Trades / day1.4

Drawdown62%

Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 25 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	18¢	18¢	$100	$100	−$0 (-0%)
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	Yes	48¢	48¢	$80	$79	−$1 (-1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score	Yes	42¢	42¢	$80	$79	−$1 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Under	59¢	58¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	Under	44¢	44¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	Under	42¢	42¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$51	+$36	+70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$50	+$23	+46%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	Jun 16	$101	+$41	+41%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$253	+$182	+72%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 16	$31	−$30	-98%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime?	Jun 16	$51	+$79	+155%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 16	$51	−$50	-98%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner	Jun 14	$111	−$110	-99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	Jun 14	$427	+$119	+28%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner	Jun 14	$51	+$48	+95%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner	Jun 14	$87	−$85	-98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner	Jun 14	$134	−$8	-6%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner	Jun 14	$102	+$128	+126%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner	Jun 14	$76	+$38	+50%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner	Jun 14	$160	−$75	-47%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner	Jun 14	$61	−$60	-98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	Jun 13	$72	−$1	-1%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner	Jun 13	$172	−$9	-5%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner	Jun 13	$36	+$67	+189%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner	Jun 13	$167	−$8	-5%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner	Jun 13	$126	−$125	-99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner	Jun 13	$50	+$11	+23%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner	Jun 13	$113	+$137	+122%
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026?	Apr 13	$5	−$5	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	42¢	$81	1h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	48¢	$81	1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	59¢	$30	1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	44¢	$31	1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	42¢	$31	1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	58¢	$29	1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	59¢	$30	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$51	12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	8¢	$5	12h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$102	25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$50	34h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$435	34h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$94	34h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	48¢	$102	35h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	35¢	$31	35h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime?	SELL Yes	100¢	$130	35h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	53¢	$51	36h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	38¢	$51	36h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	36¢	$51	36h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	51¢	$48	36h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$51	36h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$101	36h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	52¢	$51	36h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner	BUY RED Canids	22¢	$10	3d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner	BUY RED Canids	71¢	$50	3d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner	BUY RED Canids	55¢	$51	3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	SELL T1	100¢	$547	3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	BUY T1	93¢	$301	3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	BUY T1	71¢	$50	3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	BUY T1	38¢	$25	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $346.99 · official $346.99 (match) · 99 history records