trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 8 | -1.9% | -11.2% | 50% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -1.9% | -11.2% | 50% | 0% | -9.4% |
| all | 23 | +1.7% | -8.0% | 52% | 4% | -8.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.0% | 4% | -8.9% |
| 10% | -16.8% | 4% | -17.6% |
| 15% | -24.8% | 4% | -25.6% |
| 20% | -32.2% | 4% | -32.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | No | 94¢ | 95¢ | $41 | $41 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 08 | $2 | $0 | -1% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 07 | $104 | +$2 | +2% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 07 | $73 | $0 | +0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 06 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 05 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 05 | $9 | −$1 | -13% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 05 | $54 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 03 | $13 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | -4% |
| Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? | Jun 12 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? | May 15 | $12 | +$6 | +52% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? | Apr 25 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? | Apr 24 | $91 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? | Apr 24 | $97 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Apr 25? | Apr 24 | $11 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? | Apr 24 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $83000 and $85000 on Apr 25? | Apr 24 | $107 | $0 | -0% |
| Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Apr 23 | $107 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi | Apr 23 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 23 | $119 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Solana reach $210 in April? | Apr 23 | $12 | $0 | -1% |