Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:52:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B4 0xb462…fc89 crypto 828 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 91d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$161 (+0%) realized +$572 · open −$411
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate81%647W / 156L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day29.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$5,189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$96
7 days+$180
14 days+$273
30 days+$718
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$625
other 4% −$238
world 1% −$490
sports 1% −$78
tech 1% +$140
politics 0% +$16
economics 0% +$4
finance 0% +$7
culture 0% +$8
weather 0% −$89
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +6.1% -4.0% 96% 27% -6.1%
≤30d 166 +1.6% -8.1% 86% 34% -6.9%
≤90d 727 -3.9% -13.0% 80% 28% -9.8%
all 803 -2.8% -12.1% 81% 29% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 29% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 10% -18.0%
15% -28.2% 4% -26.0%
20% -35.2% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$81 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$5,189
Realized+$572
Unrealized−$411
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses647 / 156
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions25
Markets (closed)803 / 828
History coverage91d ⚠
Avg bet$228
Trades / day29.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 803 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 90¢ 82¢ $1,443 $1,311 −$132 (-9%)
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? No 74¢ 83¢ $606 $680 +$74 (+12%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? No 91¢ 98¢ $364 $394 +$30 (+8%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 92¢ 96¢ $367 $381 +$14 (+4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 71¢ 78¢ $283 $310 +$27 (+10%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 78¢ 79¢ $238 $241 +$2 (+1%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 70¢ 65¢ $245 $229 −$16 (-7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $192 $199 +$7 (+4%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? No 88¢ 90¢ $176 $181 +$5 (+3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Yes 94¢ 96¢ $150 $154 +$4 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21? No 95¢ 96¢ $143 $144 +$1 (+1%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 60¢ 56¢ $120 $111 −$9 (-8%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $96 $100 +$4 (+4%)
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $96 $100 +$4 (+4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? No 93¢ 99¢ $93 $99 +$6 (+6%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? No 96¢ 97¢ $96 $97 +$1 (+1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? No 97¢ 96¢ $97 $96 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? No 92¢ 93¢ $92 $93 +$2 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? No 89¢ 90¢ $89 $90 +$2 (+2%)
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? No 95¢ 87¢ $95 $87 −$8 (-9%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $81 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? No 93¢ 91¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 82¢ 0¢ $328 $0 −$328 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 76¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $187 +$13 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $194 +$6 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $88 +$12 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $92 +$8 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $183 +$17 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $178 +$22 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $93 +$17 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $61 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $169 +$31 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $280 +$20 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $672 +$28 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $201 +$10 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $62 +$3 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $261 +$39 +15%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? Jun 13 $93 +$7 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $391 +$9 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $191 +$9 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +6%
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E Jun 13 $370 −$150 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $140 +$6 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $164 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $177 +$23 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $276 +$24 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $95 +$5 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $88 +$12 +13%
Will May 2026 be the 1st hottest on record? Jun 10 $267 +$33 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $187 +$13 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $253 +$47 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $163 +$37 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $475 +$24 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $83 −$49 -59%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $680 +$20 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $162 +$38 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $200 +$8 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $289 +$11 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $283 +$17 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $201 +$12 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $147 −$144 -98%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 4? Jun 04 $101 +$12 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $101 +$12 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $95 +$5 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $101 +$8 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $98 −$95 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $96 −$72 -75%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $634 +$66 +10%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $86 +$14 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $98 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $76 +$24 +32%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? Jun 01 $293 +$7 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21? BUY No 95¢ $143 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $92 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 93¢ $93 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? BUY No 88¢ $177 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 89¢ $90 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? BUY No 97¢ $97 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $96 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 95¢ $57 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 87¢ $88 10h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $161 28h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $4 28h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $18 28h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 90¢ $1,453 39h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY No 93¢ $7 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 84¢ $85 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 82¢ $8 39h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 92¢ $369 2d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $61 4d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $96 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $76 4d
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $95 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $81 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 95¢ $201 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $100 4d
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last E BUY No 79¢ $222 4d
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last E BUY No 71¢ $17 4d
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last E BUY No 70¢ $1 4d
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E SELL Yes 44¢ $208 4d
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E SELL Yes 52¢ $6 4d
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E SELL Yes 52¢ $6 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,189.08 · official $5,189.08 (match) · 3500 history records