Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:26:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B4 0xb465…3a37 sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,210 (+18%) realized +$1,187 · open +$23
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate71%10W / 4L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$406per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1,030now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$908
14 days+$1,098
30 days+$988
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% +$487
crypto 36% +$22
finance 13% +$23
other 7% +$640
politics 3% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +251.5% +218.0% 100% 100% +73.3%
≤30d 6 +80.0% +62.9% 67% 50% +37.3%
≤90d 12 +32.4% +19.8% 75% 25% +7.4%
all 14 +43.2% +29.6% 71% 29% +8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.6% 29% +8.2%
10% +17.2% 29% -2.1%
15% +5.9% 21% -11.6%
20% -4.5% 21% -20.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +69% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$264 vs −$371 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$1,030
Realized+$1,187
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses10 / 4
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)14 / 17
History coverage100d
Avg bet$406
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? No 93¢ 99¢ $650 $694 +$44 (+7%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? No 19¢ 18¢ $247 $227 −$20 (-8%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? No 64¢ 64¢ $109 $108 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $853 +$247 +29%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $139 +$661 +474%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $110 +$190 +172%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $82 −$82 -99%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 01 $668 +$31 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 17 $877 +$23 +3%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $222 −$222 -100%
Will PLC win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Rep Apr 25 $194 +$5 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 10? Apr 18 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 8? Apr 18 $796 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Apr 02 $200 +$1 +0%
Hawks vs. Pistons Mar 25 $1,121 −$1,121 -100%
Rockets vs. Bulls Mar 24 $466 +$1,474 +317%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 19¢ $253 34m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 64¢ $110 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $853 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 17¢ $139 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $110 14d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? BUY No 84¢ $168 21d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $82 21d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? BUY No 96¢ $482 24d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $4 24d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $4 24d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $33 27d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $19 27d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? BUY No 96¢ $48 40d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? BUY No 96¢ $531 40d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? BUY No 96¢ $21 40d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? BUY No 96¢ $68 40d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 37¢ $119 62d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 37¢ $103 62d
Will PLC win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Rep SELL Yes 100¢ $199 63d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? BUY No 97¢ $877 68d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 10? BUY Yes 98¢ $98 79d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $796 81d
Will PLC win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Rep BUY Yes 97¢ $37 84d
Will PLC win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Rep BUY Yes 97¢ $48 84d
Will PLC win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Rep BUY Yes 97¢ $21 84d
Will PLC win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Rep BUY Yes 97¢ $48 84d
Will PLC win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Rep BUY Yes 97¢ $39 84d
Hawks vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 59¢ $1,121 93d
Rockets vs. Bulls BUY Bulls 24¢ $466 95d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $200 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,029.50 · official $1,029.50 (match) · 41 history records