Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:32:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb467…af59 weather 153 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$14 (-5%) realized −$11 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%30W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day70.4pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$35
other 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 123 +8.9% -1.5% 24% 24% -13.1%
≤30d 123 +8.9% -1.5% 24% 24% -13.1%
≤90d 123 +8.9% -1.5% 24% 24% -13.1%
all 123 +8.9% -1.5% 24% 24% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.5% 24% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -10.9% 22% -21.4%
15% -19.5% 20% -29.0%
20% -27.4% 20% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×2.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$11
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses30 / 93
Open positions30
Markets (closed)123 / 153
History coverage4d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day70.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 16? Yes 33¢ 36¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? Yes 28¢ 100¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+257%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 15? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 15? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 16? Yes 18¢ 15¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? Yes 37¢ 35¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 16? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 15? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 15? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+54%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? Yes 24¢ 37¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+54%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Yes 37¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 16? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 15? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? Yes 32¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 15? Yes 48¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Yes 29¢ 8¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-74%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? Yes 35¢ 23¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? Yes 27¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-57%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 15? Yes 14¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-74%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Yes 18¢ 1¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-92%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +245%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +381%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +381%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$8 +769%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June Jun 14 $1 −$1 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +74%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 13 $2 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$2 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $3 $0 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -71%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 −$1 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 13 $0 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 13 $5 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +176%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 $0 -21%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 13 $3 −$2 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +217%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +135%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 13 $3 −$1 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 14? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$3 +285%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$9 +855%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 33¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 34¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 32¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.84 · official $34.84 (match) · 270 history records