Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:36:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B4 0xb468…0cba crypto 734 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 62d only
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,637 (-15%) realized −$1,720 · open +$83
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate28%248W / 637L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day52.7pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$502now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,804
7 days−$2,685
14 days−$2,399
30 days−$2,410
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$1,208
other 21% +$454
sports 5% +$78
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 298 -54.6% -59.0% 13% 13% -73.8%
≤30d 677 -12.2% -20.6% 28% 27% -37.6%
≤90d 885 -13.8% -22.0% 28% 27% -38.3%
all 885 -13.8% -22.0% 28% 27% -38.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.0% 27% -38.3%
10% ← realistic here -29.4% 26% -44.2%
15% -36.3% 25% -49.6%
20% -42.5% 23% -54.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$12 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$502
Realized−$1,720
Unrealized+$83
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses248 / 637
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions10
Markets (closed)885 / 734
History coverage63d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day52.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 885 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $90 $120 +$30 (+33%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $90 $104 +$14 (+16%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 60¢ $80 $77 −$3 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+19%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 45¢ 56¢ $30 $38 +$8 (+27%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 31¢ $15 $29 +$14 (+94%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 76¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+42%)
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 32¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+15%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 490 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $24 −$27 -116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 23 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 23 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 23 $1 +$4 +393%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$4 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 23 $36 +$60 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-03-28? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-04-17? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 23 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 96¢ $67 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 60¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 2h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 41¢ $3 3h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 42¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 15h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $16 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $3 16h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 16h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $41 16h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $502.15 · official $502.79 (match) · 3500 history records