Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:02:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb469…9e8f sports 249 markets active 0h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$37 (-1%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate47%117W / 132L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$84
7 days+$142
14 days−$45
30 days+$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$70
other 9% +$138
world 4% +$20
crypto 1% −$40
politics 1% −$39
finance 0% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +86.0% +68.3% 67% 67% +92.2%
≤30d 19 +0.3% -9.3% 42% 42% +0.5%
≤90d 67 -1.2% -10.6% 42% 42% -14.7%
all 249 -6.0% -15.0% 47% 43% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 43% -9.2%
10% -23.1% 39% -17.9%
15% -30.5% 35% -25.8%
20% -37.3% 28% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$16 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses117 / 132
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)249 / 249
History coverage231d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 249 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $99 +$84 +84%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $23 +$62 +274%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $10 +$32 +319%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals Jun 13 $77 −$77 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $56 −$55 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 01 $5 +$4 +81%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $153 +$117 +76%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $45 +$38 +84%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $20 +$13 +65%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 24 $18 −$18 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 24 $40 −$14 -35%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 24 $27 −$27 -100%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $49 +$28 +57%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $20 −$10 -47%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $20 −$7 -37%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $10 −$6 -60%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $20 +$35 +176%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $47 +$17 +35%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $63 +$32 +51%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $15 −$13 -88%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 14 $10 +$12 +116%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $19 +$10 +54%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 11 $14 +$27 +185%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 10 $27 +$9 +33%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 10 $16 +$11 +70%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings May 06 $21 −$19 -89%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings May 05 $13 +$5 +36%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants May 04 $17 +$17 +101%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the May 04 $6 −$5 -73%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam May 04 $51 −$33 -64%
Pakistan Super League: Peshawar Zalmi vs Hyderabad Kingsmen May 03 $41 +$6 +16%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings May 03 $68 +$17 +25%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. New Zealand: Bangladesh vs New Zealand May 02 $6 +$5 +80%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals May 01 $18 +$23 +123%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 29 $13 +$22 +165%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 28 $20 +$36 +180%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Gujarat Titans Apr 24 $25 +$24 +95%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Chennai Super Kings Apr 23 $27 −$18 -66%
T20 Series South Africa vs. India, Women: South Africa vs India Apr 22 $5 +$25 +524%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Chennai Super Kings Apr 20 $31 −$31 -100%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs New Zealand: Bangladesh vs New Zealand Apr 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Pakistan Super League: Peshawar Zalmi vs Multan Sultans Apr 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Pakistan Super League: Peshawar Zalmi vs Lahore Qalandars Apr 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India SELL South Africa 90¢ $183 15m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY South Africa 48¢ $99 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 92¢ $85 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 33¢ $15 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 16¢ $8 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 14¢ $1 7d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand SELL West Indies 90¢ $31 7d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand SELL West Indies 90¢ $2 7d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand SELL West Indies 90¢ $9 7d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand BUY West Indies 21¢ $10 7d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa BUY South Africa 11¢ $5 8d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa BUY South Africa 17¢ $51 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $9 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 20d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans SELL Royal Challengers Bengaluru 98¢ $270 21d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 52¢ $13 21d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 52¢ $39 21d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 57¢ $101 21d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Gujarat Titans 95¢ $43 22d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Gujarat Titans 87¢ $39 22d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 38¢ $9 23d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 57¢ $20 23d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 47¢ $15 23d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 27¢ $5 25d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 54¢ $34 25d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans SELL Royal Challengers Bengaluru 88¢ $33 26d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 53¢ $20 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 731 history records