Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:36:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb46c…6316 politics 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%3W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$1
other 36% −$1
sports 9% $0
crypto 5% $0
economics 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 15% 0% -9.6%
all 21 -0.0% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses3 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage112d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $113 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $228 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $113 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $114 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 14 $113 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $113 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $113 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $115 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 15 $115 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $115 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $115 $0 +0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $115 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 28 $115 $0 +0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 23 $115 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 17 $115 $0 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 14 $115 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 12 $115 $0 +0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 11 $115 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 06 $115 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 05 $115 $0 +0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 02 $115 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $113 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $113 18h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $113 9d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $113 9d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $113 24d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $113 25d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $113 34d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $114 34d
Trump out as President by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $114 38d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $113 39d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $113 40d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $113 41d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $113 41d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $113 42d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $115 64d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $115 64d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $115 65d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $115 66d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $115 67d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $115 67d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $115 71d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $115 71d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $115 75d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $115 75d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $115 79d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $115 80d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $115 85d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $115 86d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $115 90d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $115 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 61 history records