Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:56:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb46e…296f crypto 860 markets active 2d ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$18 (-2%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%429W / 431L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day49.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$42
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 161 -6.1% -15.1% 49% 49% -14.0%
≤30d 860 -0.8% -10.3% 50% 47% -13.0%
≤90d 860 -0.8% -10.3% 50% 47% -13.0%
all 860 -0.8% -10.3% 50% 47% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 47% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 43% -21.3%
15% -26.7% 38% -28.9%
20% -33.9% 33% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses429 / 431
Open positions0
Markets (closed)860 / 860
History coverage24d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day49.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 860 Trades
no open positions (315 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +129%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1577 history records