Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:13:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb479…2403 world 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 372d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate37%14W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% +$1
world 25% +$4
culture 19% $0
sports 17% −$6
politics 6% $0
finance 3% $0
tech 1% −$4
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +13.6% +2.8% 33% 17% -6.1%
≤30d 15 +5.8% -4.3% 47% 7% -8.0%
≤90d 15 +5.8% -4.3% 47% 7% -8.0%
all 38 -0.8% -10.3% 37% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 3% -9.9%
10% -18.8% 3% -18.5%
15% -26.7% 3% -26.4%
20% -33.9% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

372d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses14 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage372d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 84¢ 84¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $39 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $4 +$3 +80%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $36 $0 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $13 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 31 $19 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $18 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $36 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $28 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $32 +$2 +5%
Jock Landale: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Mar 10 $147 −$6 -4%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 09 $162 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 03 $20 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jul 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Jul 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Jul 02 $7 −$4 -58%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $23 $0 -0%
Will the next government of Suriname be NDP/NPS/ABOP? Jul 01 $29 +$1 +4%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 01 $29 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 27 $6 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent? Jun 25 $25 +$1 +4%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? Jun 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jun 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 19 $3 $0 +5%
Israel strike on Iran on June 17? Jun 18 $3 $0 -15%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Germany before July? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will Boca Juniors win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 16 $24 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 16 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $39 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $39 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $39 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $36 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $36 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $10 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $0 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $13 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $19 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $33 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 20d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.24 · official $39.24 (match) · 119 history records