Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:05:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B4 0xb47a…c12f crypto 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 207d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,613 (-34%) realized −$1,615 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate35%11W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$120
30 days−$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$608
other 19% −$871
sports 16% +$16
world 4% −$178
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-53.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 -57.9% -61.9% 29% 29% -33.6%
≤90d 31 -48.4% -53.3% 35% 29% -41.0%
all 31 -48.4% -53.3% 35% 29% -41.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.3% 29% -41.0%
10% -57.8% 19% -46.7%
15% -61.9% 13% -51.8%
20% -65.6% 13% -56.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late -52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$105 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

207d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$1,615
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses11 / 20
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage207d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Canada 73¢ 70¢ $37 $36 −$1 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 23¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $102 +$83 +82%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 02 $51 −$50 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $221 +$29 +13%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 27 $132 +$79 +60%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $102 −$91 -90%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $47 +$37 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Apr 09 $84 −$81 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 09 $68 +$17 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 09 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 09 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 09 $30 −$9 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 09 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 09 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 09 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 07 $148 −$148 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 06 $510 −$510 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 06 $456 +$54 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 06 $457 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 06 $422 +$35 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 06 $399 +$23 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 06 $100 +$35 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 06 $100 +$58 +58%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Apr 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly Apr 06 $675 −$675 -100%
Will Hollow Knight: Silksong win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awa Apr 06 $178 −$178 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 06 $100 +$12 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 73¢ $37 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 26¢ $20 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 9d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 32¢ $51 14d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 16d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 87¢ $184 17d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $102 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $51 26d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Spurs 99¢ $250 28d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 87¢ $221 28d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Spurs 5¢ $10 32d
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) BUY Thunder 62¢ $132 32d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 48¢ $102 32d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 55¢ $47 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $84 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $84 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $68 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $10 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $10 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $27 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $20 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $10 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $10 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $10 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $148 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $50 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $262 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.39 · official $59.90 (match) · 64 history records