Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:21:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B4 0xb47e…c602 sports 876 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 154d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$10,697 (-4%) realized −$11,063 · open +$366
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%386W / 788L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$287per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$707est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$9,099now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 154d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$12,829
other 29% +$2,307
politics 4% +$904
economics 1% −$44
world 1% −$1,014
crypto 0% +$390
culture 0% −$206
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-35.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 361 -92.4% -93.1% 4% 4% -86.6%
≤30d 596 -79.1% -81.1% 10% 10% -79.1%
≤90d 874 -60.8% -64.5% 17% 17% -63.7%
all 1174 -28.3% -35.2% 33% 33% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.2% 33% -23.0%
10% -41.4% 32% -30.4%
15% -47.0% 32% -37.1%
20% -52.2% 30% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -60% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +23% → late -80% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$307 vs −$203 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$9,099
Realized−$11,063
Unrealized+$366
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses386 / 788
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$707
Open positions46
Markets (closed)1174 / 876
History coverage154d ⚠
Avg bet$287
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 46 History 1174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 60¢ $380 $1,210 +$830 (+218%)
Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $455 $540 +$85 (+19%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 70¢ 72¢ $420 $429 +$9 (+2%)
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? No 60¢ 57¢ $390 $374 −$16 (-4%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 56¢ 52¢ $392 $360 −$31 (-8%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 47¢ 42¢ $376 $340 −$36 (-10%)
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? Yes 38¢ 34¢ $381 $340 −$41 (-11%)
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? No 40¢ 34¢ $399 $335 −$64 (-16%)
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 59¢ 88¢ $206 $308 +$102 (+49%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Over 66¢ 82¢ $198 $248 +$50 (+25%)
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Yes 38¢ 40¢ $222 $236 +$14 (+6%)
Grêmio Novorizontino vs. Vila Nova FC: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $210 $207 −$2 (-1%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 40¢ 44¢ $190 $207 +$17 (+9%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Under 46¢ 46¢ $207 $205 −$2 (-1%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 40¢ $205 $202 −$2 (-1%)
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 42¢ $204 $202 −$2 (-1%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 48¢ $204 $202 −$2 (-1%)
Operário Ferroviário EC vs. América FC: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 42¢ $204 $196 −$7 (-4%)
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $192 $195 +$2 (+1%)
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Goiás EC: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 55¢ $199 $194 −$5 (-3%)
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-06-28? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $201 $194 −$7 (-3%)
Criciúma EC vs. São Bernardo FC: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 42¢ $204 $193 −$11 (-5%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 38¢ $215 $192 −$22 (-10%)
Will Adidas be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champion? Yes 42¢ 38¢ $210 $190 −$20 (-10%)
Athletic Club vs. Avaí FC: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 42¢ $197 $187 −$11 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 439 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kings vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 20+ times during 9-11 memorial Jun 26 $103 −$103 -100%
Jets vs. Blues: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $104 −$104 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Sporting CP: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Trump say "Ukraine" or "Ukrainian" 10+ times during events with t Jun 26 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" while addressing the nation on December 17? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 15+ times during his AI Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Leavitt say "Supreme Court" during the next White House press bri Jun 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Rangers: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $108 −$108 -100%
Will the Buffalo Bills be the first team to reach 50 total points scor Jun 26 $24 −$24 -100%
Bulls vs. Hornets Jun 26 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Trump say "Horror show" this week? (September 22-28) Jun 26 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Trump say "Commonwealth" during the UK state banquet on September Jun 26 $111 −$111 -100%
Chiefs vs. Raiders Jun 26 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" while addressing the nation on De Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Inflation" while addressing the nation on December 17? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Wild vs. Flyers Jun 26 $48 −$48 -100%
Senators vs. Utah Jun 26 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Leavitt say "Tariff" during next White House press briefing? Jun 26 $85 −$84 -98%
76ers vs. Grizzlies Jun 26 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during Pennsylvania events on December Jun 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Steelers vs. Browns: O/U 34.5 Jun 26 $98 −$98 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Blues: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $102 −$102 -100%
Bucks vs. Pacers Jun 26 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 10+ times during events Jun 26 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (September 15-21) Jun 26 $33 −$33 -100%
Earthquake 7.0 or above by July 31? Jun 26 $216 −$201 -93%
Will Leavitt say "President" 80+ times during the next White House pre Jun 26 $63 −$63 -100%
Hawks vs. Hornets Jun 26 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" this week? (October 7 - 12) Jun 26 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 12+ times during Hungary PM event Jun 26 $90 −$90 -100%
Bears vs. Bengals: O/U 52.5 Jun 26 $106 −$106 -100%
Kings vs. Senators: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $102 −$102 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Lakers Jun 26 $114 −$114 -100%
Jazz vs. Hornets Jun 26 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Trump say "Democrat" 4+ times during events with the President of Jun 26 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Trump say "Border" during Museum of the Bible speech on September Jun 26 $95 −$95 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 244.5 Jun 26 $102 −$102 -100%
Sharks vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $108 −$108 -100%
Ducks vs. Devils Jun 26 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "AI" or "artificial intelligence" during Israel Jun 26 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "border" during Israel President events on Decem Jun 26 $95 −$95 -100%
Clippers vs. 76ers Jun 26 $105 −$105 -100%
Raptors vs. 76ers: O/U 236.5 Jun 26 $98 −$98 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Bruins: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 12+ times during Jun 26 $105 −$105 -100%
Celtics vs. 76ers Jun 26 $92 −$92 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $102 −$102 -100%
Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 239.5 Jun 26 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Ukraine / Russia" 5+ times during Syria Preside Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 48¢ $171 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Jordan 63¢ $57 1h
Operário Ferroviário EC vs. América FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $134 1h
Criciúma EC vs. São Bernardo FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $183 1h
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Goiás EC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $198 1h
Athletic Club vs. Avaí FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $179 1h
Will Ivan Perišić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 25¢ $14 1h
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Goiás EC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $4 1h
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 46¢ $33 1h
Athletic Club vs. Avaí FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1 1h
Athletic Club vs. Avaí FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $20 1h
Athletic Club vs. Avaí FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $208 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $94 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Jordan 62¢ $38 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $95 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $207 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 49¢ $99 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $209 1h
Criciúma EC vs. São Bernardo FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 1h
Criciúma EC vs. São Bernardo FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 1h
Criciúma EC vs. São Bernardo FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 1h
Criciúma EC vs. São Bernardo FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 1h
Operário Ferroviário EC vs. América FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $4 1h
Operário Ferroviário EC vs. América FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1 1h
Operário Ferroviário EC vs. América FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1 1h
Operário Ferroviário EC vs. América FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $2 1h
Operário Ferroviário EC vs. América FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $4 1h
Operário Ferroviário EC vs. América FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $62 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $210 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,098.57 · official $9,098.57 (match) · 3500 history records