Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:16:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb47e…aaf5 sports 41 markets active 3d ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$23 (-22%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%13W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$26
14 days−$26
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$34
other 26% +$11
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -26.8% -33.8% 30% 30% -35.2%
≤30d 41 -25.6% -32.7% 32% 32% -31.3%
≤90d 41 -25.6% -32.7% 32% 32% -31.3%
all 41 -25.6% -32.7% 32% 32% -31.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.7% 32% -31.3%
10% -39.1% 20% -37.8%
15% -45.0% 17% -43.9%
20% -50.4% 12% -49.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses13 / 28
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage20d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -91%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $2 $0 +19%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -56%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +56%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +133%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -70%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -26%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 -26%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -31%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 -8%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$2 -34%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$2 -37%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 -32%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -82%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 -10%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +120%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $16 −$13 -80%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 $0 -13%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$1 -40%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 +$1 +21%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +49%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $2 −$1 -33%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 $0 -24%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 +$10 +169%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -73%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +42%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 +$1 +140%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 26 $8 +$2 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 35¢ $1 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 5¢ $0 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $2 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $4 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 14¢ $0 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 30¢ $1 3d
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? SELL Yes 47¢ $1 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 35¢ $1 4d
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $2 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $3 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $1 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $1 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $1 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 97¢ $2 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $5 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 SELL Under 7¢ $0 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $1 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $1 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Under 22¢ $1 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 92¢ $6 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $4 4d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 4d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 4d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 4d
Spread: Australia (-1.5) SELL Australia 11¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 116 history records