Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:39:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B4 0xb482…3d70 crypto 164 markets active 2h ago coverage 292d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$99 (+0%) realized +$99 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate96%155W / 7L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$454per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$598now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$9
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$83
other 0% +$3
tech 0% +$8
sports 0% $0
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 32 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 110 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 1% -9.4%
all 162 +0.2% -9.3% 96% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 1% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$560) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×27.95 per $1 lost it wins $27.95
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

292d coverage
Net worth$598
Realized+$99
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses155 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)162 / 164
History coverage292d
Avg bet$454
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $588 $588 +$0 (+0%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 95¢ 94¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? Jun 22 $587 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 20? Jun 20 $586 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 18? Jun 18 $586 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? Jun 17 $585 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 16? Jun 16 $585 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $584 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 8-14? Jun 15 $583 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $582 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 13? Jun 13 $582 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 12? Jun 12 $580 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $580 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 9? Jun 09 $579 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? Jun 08 $579 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 1-7? Jun 08 $575 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 6? Jun 06 $575 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 5? Jun 06 $574 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? Jun 05 $572 +$3 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 4? Jun 05 $571 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 4? Jun 04 $571 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $570 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 3? Jun 03 $570 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 2? Jun 02 $464 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 2? Jun 02 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 1? Jun 01 $569 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on May 31? Jun 01 $568 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 30? May 30 $567 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? May 29 $567 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,950 on May 28? May 29 $566 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 28? May 28 $566 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 27? May 27 $565 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 26? May 26 $565 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 May 18-24? May 25 $563 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 23? May 23 $563 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 21? May 22 $562 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 20? May 20 $562 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 19? May 19 $561 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 18? May 18 $561 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 May 11-17? May 18 $560 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 17? May 17 $560 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,050 on May 16? May 17 $559 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 16? May 16 $558 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 on May 15? May 16 $556 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 15? May 15 $554 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 14? May 14 $553 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 13? May 13 $552 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 12? May 12 $551 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 on May 11? May 12 $550 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 11? May 11 $549 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 May 4-10? May 11 $547 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 10? May 10 $547 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $588 1h
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $587 29h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $586 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $586 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $585 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $585 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $584 7d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $583 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $582 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $582 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $580 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $580 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $579 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $579 14d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 1-7? BUY No 99¢ $575 16d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $575 16d
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $574 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? BUY Yes 99¢ $572 17d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $571 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $571 19d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $570 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $570 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $464 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $105 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $569 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $568 23d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $567 23d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $567 24d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,950 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $566 25d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $566 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $598.15 · official $598.15 (match) · 421 history records