Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:28:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B4
0xb482…2ac7
crypto · 1243 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,514 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,557 · open +$44
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$98
Realized−$1,557
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses995 / 254
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1249 / 1243
History coverage35d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day79.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1249 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$295
7 days−$431
14 days−$642
30 days−$1,772
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Down 54¢ 98¢ $54 $98 +$44 (+81%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $73 $0 −$73 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $72 $0 −$72 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 29°C on May 8? No 98¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Down 94¢ 0¢ $94 $0 −$94 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $63 $0 −$63 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 29°C on May 8? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 9? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ma Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on May 9? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on May 9? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on May 9? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on May 9? Jun 13 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $28 +$22 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $28 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$23 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $54 −$53 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $56 −$54 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $27 −$26 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $54 +$46 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $55 −$54 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $55 +$45 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $55 −$54 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $27 +$23 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $28 −$27 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $55 +$45 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $55 +$45 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $54 +$46 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $55 +$45 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $27 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $54 +$46 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $28 +$22 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $55 −$54 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $55 −$54 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $55 −$54 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $27 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $27 +$23 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $55 −$54 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $54 −$53 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $27 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $54 +$46 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$23 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $27 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $52 +$43 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $54 +$46 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $28 +$22 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $54 −$53 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $27 +$23 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$23 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $27 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $54 +$46 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 89% −$1,496
weather 11% +$138
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $15 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $28 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $28 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $28 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $9 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $19 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 210 -10.1% -18.6% 49% 49% -14.2%
≤30d 751 -4.0% -13.1% 68% 44% -12.0%
≤90d 1249 -1.4% -10.8% 80% 30% -11.2%
all 1249 -1.4% -10.8% 80% 30% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover79.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 30% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 22% -19.7%
15% -27.1% 18% -27.4%
20% -34.2% 17% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.50 · official $88.50 · 3500 history records