Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:25:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb483…c291 other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 455d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate34%14W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$6
other 31% $0
politics 9% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -3.4% -12.6% 8% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 14 -3.1% -12.3% 14% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 17 -2.4% -11.7% 24% 0% -10.3%
all 41 -1.6% -11.0% 34% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 0% -10.0%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.7%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

455d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses14 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage455d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $41 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $1 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 25 $87 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $131 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $23 −$1 -4%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $21 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $38 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $10 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $18 −$7 -39%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $45 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $69 +$2 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $55 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $49 −$1 -2%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 09 $7 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 08 $10 $0 -1%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 08 $7 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 07 $5 $0 +2%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 06 $2 $0 +7%
Will Trump’s approval rating be 46.0–46.4% on July 4? Jul 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 04 $14 $0 -1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 03 $14 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 03 $14 $0 -0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 26 $15 $0 +3%
Will egg prices be between $5.00 and $5.25 in March? Apr 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Apr 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Apr 01 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon go on Daily Show before April? Mar 28 $1 $0 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $41 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $41 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 9h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $37 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $37 25h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $16 27h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $21 27h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $37 31h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $37 33h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $37 33h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $40 40h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $40 42h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $9 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $2 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $22 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $6 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $9 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $18 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $0 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $7 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $14 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $23 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $9 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $12 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $21 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.10 · official $0.00 (match) · 147 history records