Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:42:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B4 0xb48b…9019 crypto 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 534d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate78%42W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$6
crypto 11% +$1
tech 4% +$2
other 3% $0
politics 2% $0
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 54 +0.2% -9.3% 78% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

534d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses42 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage534d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $69 $69 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 03 $46 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? May 05 $60 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? Apr 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in March? Apr 01 $53 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? Mar 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in February? Mar 03 $36 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? Feb 02 $52 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in December? Jan 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $46 +$1 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 02 $52 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 03 $64 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in September? Oct 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Oct 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? Sep 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $51 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? Aug 03 $65 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by June 30? Jul 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? Jul 02 $32 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in May? Jun 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 04 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in April? May 04 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? May 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? May 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May? May 04 $40 $0 +1%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 21 $56 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will another party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in the next Cana Apr 17 $47 $0 -0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the second most seats in the next Ca Apr 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will Mykel Williams be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 12 $45 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 01 $8 $0 +2%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in March? Apr 01 $11 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 08 $4,813 −$5 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Mar 03 $16 $0 +1%
Will Meta have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 03 $19 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? Mar 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.30-1.34ºC in February 20 Mar 03 $18 $0 +1%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the Eastern Conference? Feb 22 $16 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on January 31? Feb 19 $25 $0 +1%
Will Celtic win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 12 $25 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in June? BUY No 100¢ $69 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 30d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $46 30d
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? BUY No 100¢ $60 62d
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $13 91d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $53 92d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $27 121d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in February? BUY No 100¢ $36 121d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 100¢ $5 148d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 100¢ $19 149d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? BUY No 100¢ $52 150d
Will Solana reach $220 in December? BUY No 100¢ $20 181d
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? BUY Yes 98¢ $46 181d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $52 211d
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 240d
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $18 241d
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $37 242d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in September? BUY No 100¢ $16 271d
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? BUY No 100¢ $39 273d
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? BUY No 100¢ $12 301d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $51 302d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? BUY No 100¢ $5 332d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $8 333d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? BUY No 100¢ $23 334d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? BUY No 99¢ $37 334d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? BUY No 99¢ $32 366d
Solana all time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $27 366d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $16 392d
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? BUY No 100¢ $9 394d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in May? BUY No 100¢ $16 395d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.95 · official $68.95 (match) · 118 history records