Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:22:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B4 0xb48c…2739 crypto 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate100%71W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$8
tech 0% +$2
other 0% +$1
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 8 +3.1% -6.7% 100% 12% -9.2%
≤90d 21 +1.5% -8.2% 100% 5% -9.3%
all 71 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 1% -9.4%
10% -17.6% 1% -18.1%
15% -25.6% 0% -26.0%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses71 / 0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)71 / 81
History coverage240d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $72 $72 −$0 (-0%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 94¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? No 81¢ 100¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+23%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? No 100¢ 99¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on June 23? Jun 27 $74 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 20? Jun 21 $72 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $73 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 13? Jun 14 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 8? Jun 11 $115 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $300 in May? Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont Jun 07 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 20? Jun 07 $102 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by April 30, 2026? May 03 $3 $0 +2%
Will Turkey strike Iran by April 30? May 03 $5 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 1680-1759 tweets in April 2026? May 03 $6 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 30? May 03 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 28? Apr 28 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 22? Apr 27 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 15? Apr 21 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? Apr 13 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 2? Apr 05 $104 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in March? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on March 31? Apr 01 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 29? Mar 29 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? Mar 28 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on March 23? Mar 24 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 21? Mar 22 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 16? Mar 18 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 13? Mar 14 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 10? Mar 12 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 09 $110 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people? Mar 06 $3 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,400 on March 1? Mar 06 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 27? Feb 28 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 24? Feb 25 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 2 Feb 21 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 18? Feb 18 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 16? Feb 17 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 14? Feb 14 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on February 12? Feb 12 $108 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 10? Feb 10 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on February 8? Feb 09 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on February 6? Feb 06 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on February 2 Feb 05 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $98,000 on February 1? Feb 01 $98 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 31 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 30? Jan 30 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $96,000 on January 28? Jan 29 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on January 26? Jan 26 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on January 23? Jan 24 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 20? Jan 21 $101 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $72 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $74 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $72 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $73 10d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $7 13d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $6 13d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $7 13d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? BUY No 100¢ $4 13d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $4 13d
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? BUY No 99¢ $4 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $103 14d
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $3 15d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $3 15d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $6 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $115 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $102 38d
Will BNB dip to $300 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 40d
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont BUY Yes 80¢ $5 48d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 30? BUY No 100¢ $102 58d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $101 60d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $102 66d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $98 74d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $98 77d
Will Turkey strike Iran by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $5 79d
Will Elon Musk post 1680-1759 tweets in April 2026? BUY No 99¢ $6 79d
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by April 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $3 79d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $109 82d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $104 86d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $104 89d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 29? BUY No 100¢ $109 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.78 · official $117.78 (match) · 153 history records