Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:51:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B4 0xb491…ec70 weather 192 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+0%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%179W / 12L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% +$26
sports 1% −$1
politics 0% $0
tech 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
world 0% +$1
crypto 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 42 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 137 -0.1% -9.6% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 191 -0.0% -9.6% 94% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×6.2 per $1 lost it wins $6.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses179 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)191 / 192
History coverage128d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 191 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $110 $110 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 21? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 21? Jun 22 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 21? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $192 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 19? Jun 20 $111 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 19? Jun 19 $108 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $205 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $175 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 15 $198 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $184 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $186 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 11? Jun 11 $184 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $157 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C or higher on June 9? Jun 10 $111 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $185 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $93 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 6? Jun 07 $195 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 6? Jun 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 5? Jun 05 $191 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 4? Jun 04 $199 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 3? Jun 03 $198 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 2? Jun 02 $183 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 1? Jun 02 $191 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 1? Jun 01 $194 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on May 31? Jun 01 $199 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on May 30? May 31 $201 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on May 29? May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on May 28? May 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on May 28? May 28 $187 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 27? May 27 $189 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 25? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on May 24? May 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 23? May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 23? May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on May 22? May 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 31°C on May 22? May 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on May 20? May 21 $108 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on May 17? May 21 $189 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C on May 20? May 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 19? May 20 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $110 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $1 31h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $113 31h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $192 44h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $1 46h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $14 3d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $97 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $108 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $205 6d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $175 7d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $198 8d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $184 8d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $186 10d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $19 10d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $92 10d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $184 11d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $113 12d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $157 12d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C or higher on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $111 13d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $185 13d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $93 14d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $1 15d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $195 16d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or below on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $200 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.72 · official $109.72 (match) · 411 history records