Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:46:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb494…14fb world 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate36%16W / 29L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$6
other 20% +$1
politics 14% $0
sports 10% $0
finance 7% $0
crypto 5% −$1
culture 5% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 11 +3.7% -6.2% 55% 9% -8.1%
≤90d 12 +3.3% -6.5% 50% 8% -8.4%
all 45 +0.4% -9.2% 36% 2% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 2% -9.0%
10% -17.9% 2% -17.7%
15% -25.8% 2% -25.7%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.23 per $1 lost it wins $2.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses16 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage270d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $84 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $24 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $80 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $37 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $37 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $41 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $18 +$8 +44%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $30 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 21 $30 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $36 −$3 -8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $72 $0 -1%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 04 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 04 $7 −$1 -12%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Oct 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $26 $0 +0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30? Oct 02 $7 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Oct 01 $22 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $22 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $24 $0 +1%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $7 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 28 $31 $0 -1%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 27 $7 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 26 $1 $0 +9%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 25 $2 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 25 $4 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in September? Sep 24 $25 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 24 $1 $0 -7%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Sep 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 23 $2 $0 -15%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 23 $2 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $43 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $42 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $24 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 13h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $18 13h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $37 18h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $1 18h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $38 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $42 23h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $42 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 46¢ $24 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 46¢ $14 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $37 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $41 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $41 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 98¢ $37 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 97¢ $37 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 52¢ $41 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $41 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $25 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $10 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $7 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $30 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $30 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $33 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $33 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $11 29d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $2 29d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $17 29d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $27 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 156 history records