Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:31:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B4 0xb496…6f10 sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 346d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,463 (-50%) realized −$1,380 · open −$83
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%3W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$323now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$200
7 days+$302
14 days−$230
30 days−$230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$1,109
sports 31% −$255
politics 7% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-44.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +69.9% +53.8% 75% 75% +29.1%
≤30d 9 -24.5% -31.7% 33% 33% -26.3%
≤90d 9 -24.5% -31.7% 33% 33% -26.3%
all 11 -38.2% -44.1% 27% 27% -63.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.1% 27% -63.3%
10% -49.4% 27% -66.8%
15% -54.3% 27% -70.0%
20% -58.8% 27% -73.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$167 vs −$248 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

346d coverage
Net worth$323
Realized−$1,380
Unrealized−$83
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions5
Markets (closed)11 / 16
History coverage346d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 Over 37¢ 38¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Over 38¢ 38¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Over 26¢ 24¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 16¢ $6 $25 +$19 (+316%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 21¢ $100 $7 −$93 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $203 −$200 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $102 +$255 +250%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $303 +$173 +57%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $133 −$131 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
US government shutdown in 2025? Sep 25 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Max Verstappen leave Red Bull before 2026? Jul 25 $1,050 −$1,050 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 26¢ $102 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $102 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $102 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $203 29h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $133 9d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $303 9d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 30¢ $102 9d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $102 9d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 9d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 9d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $102 9d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $102 9d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes $6 137d
US government shutdown in 2025? BUY No 25¢ $200 268d
Will Max Verstappen leave Red Bull before 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $530 330d
Will Max Verstappen leave Red Bull before 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 330d
Will Max Verstappen leave Red Bull before 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 330d
Will Max Verstappen leave Red Bull before 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $40 330d
Will Max Verstappen leave Red Bull before 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 330d
Will Max Verstappen leave Red Bull before 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 330d
Will Max Verstappen leave Red Bull before 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $19 330d
Will Max Verstappen leave Red Bull before 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $100 345d
Will Max Verstappen leave Red Bull before 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 345d
Will Max Verstappen leave Red Bull before 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $7 345d
Will Max Verstappen leave Red Bull before 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $168 345d
Will Max Verstappen leave Red Bull before 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $72 346d
Will Max Verstappen leave Red Bull before 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $17 346d
Will Max Verstappen leave Red Bull before 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 346d
Will Max Verstappen leave Red Bull before 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $41 346d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $322.78 · official $322.78 (match) · 34 history records