Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:00:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B4
0xb49f…1821
weather · 398 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$445 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$426 · open −$19
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$35
Realized−$426
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses223 / 173
Open positions2
Markets (closed)396 / 398
History coverage47d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day65.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 396 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$96
7 days−$341
14 days+$53
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? Yes 44¢ 48¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $25 $2 −$23 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$12 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$8 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $31 +$28 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$7 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $57 +$96 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $41 +$51 +125%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$5 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $31 +$33 +106%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $57 −$57 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$6 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $18 +$19 +105%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $41 +$42 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $41 +$51 +125%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$8 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$8 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $31 +$36 +118%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$6 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $41 +$46 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $44 +$48 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 9? Jun 10 $19 +$12 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 9? Jun 10 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 9? Jun 10 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 9? Jun 10 $20 +$17 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 9? Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $41 +$46 +114%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 9? Jun 09 $9 +$7 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$10 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $51 +$76 +149%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Jun 09 $20 +$11 +55%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 09 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $51 +$42 +83%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $58 −$58 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$445
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 42¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 18h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 18h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 54¢ $10 18h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 18h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 18h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 19h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 19h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 19h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 19h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 46¢ $4 19h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 19h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 19h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 19h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 20h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 20h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -7.2% -16.1% 46% 46% -20.8%
≤30d 142 -2.2% -11.6% 49% 49% -11.1%
≤90d 396 +1.6% -8.0% 56% 56% -11.4%
all 396 +1.6% -8.0% 56% 56% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover65.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.0% 56% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -16.8% 52% -19.9%
15% -24.9% 44% -27.6%
20% -32.2% 35% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.35 · official $40.82 · 3500 history records