Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:36:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4a0…7d51 other 13 markets active 5d ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2 (-2%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$2
crypto 12% +$1
sports 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-29.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -21.6% -29.1% 50% 50% -11.8%
≤30d 4 -21.6% -29.1% 50% 50% -11.8%
≤90d 4 -21.6% -29.1% 50% 50% -11.8%
all 4 -21.6% -29.1% 50% 50% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.1% 50% -11.8%
10% -35.8% 50% -20.3%
15% -42.0% 50% -28.0%
20% -47.7% 25% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)4 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+36%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -65%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +70%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 39¢ $3 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 5d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 6d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 6d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.85 · official $74.85 (match) · 23 history records