Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:27:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4a0…9d29 weather 222 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 33d only
✗ bot/MM pace (106 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$515 (+18%) realized +$515 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate38%83W / 136L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day105.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$6
14 days+$126
30 days+$317
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$351
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (106 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +13.0% +2.2% 41% 35% -10.3%
≤30d 205 +41.5% +28.0% 37% 33% +7.2%
≤90d 219 +42.1% +28.5% 38% 34% +7.8%
all 219 +42.1% +28.5% 38% 34% +7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover105.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +28.5% 34% +7.8%
10% ← realistic here +16.2% 31% -2.6%
15% +5.0% 25% -12.0%
20% -5.3% 20% -20.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late +52% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$3 · ×2.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$515
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses83 / 136
Open positions5
Markets (closed)219 / 222
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day105.6
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 219 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 18? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or below on June 18? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 114 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 14? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on May 15? Jun 17 $0 $0 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $32 −$10 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 −$2 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 +$17 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $17 −$4 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $3 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +141%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$22 +631%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $16 +$3 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $23 −$23 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$3 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $23 +$10 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $22 −$5 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 −$12 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 +$9 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$5 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 +$4 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $32 +$23 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $29 −$9 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $88 +$12 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $84 −$3 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 −$3 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $0 $0 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $9 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $0 $0 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $68 +$9 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 6m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or below on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 9m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 10m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 10m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 11m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 81¢ $10 23m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 26m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 41m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 41m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 45m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 56m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 56m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 54¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 51¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.49 · official $7.49 (match) · 3500 history records