Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:14:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B4 0xb4a1…b6d5 weather 381 markets active 5h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$78 (-0%) realized −$81 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%352W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,155now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$36
14 days+$61
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 281 +0.0% -9.5% 98% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 371 -1.6% -10.9% 95% 0% -9.9%
all 371 -1.6% -10.9% 95% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 0% -9.9%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.5%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$8 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$1,155
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses352 / 19
Open positions10
Markets (closed)371 / 381
History coverage58d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 371 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $329 $330 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $302 $303 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $299 $300 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $77 $77 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun Jun 20 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 19? Jun 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 19? Jun 19 $80 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 19? Jun 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 19? Jun 19 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $149 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $247 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $60 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 19 $178 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 19 $446 +$2 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? Jun 18 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 18 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $279 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $80 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $259 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $443 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June Jun 17 $289 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $46 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $219 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $289 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $72 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 16 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? Jun 16 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $140 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $296 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $323 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $68 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $140 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $91 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $68 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $397 +$3 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $26 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $389 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 13? Jun 14 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 13? Jun 14 $394 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $80 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $20 7h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $80 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $13 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $80 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $10 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $27 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $73 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $100 11h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $5 12h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $10 13h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $20 13h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $100 13h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $100 13h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $100 13h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $3 14h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $100 14h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $100 14h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $100 14h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $60 14h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $4 15h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $13 15h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $5 16h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $27 16h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $22 16h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $5 27h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $80 27h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $48 28h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $100 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,154.56 · official $1,154.56 (match) · 1131 history records