Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:39:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4a3…25eb crypto 53 markets active 3d ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$18 (-13%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate43%23W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -20.1% -27.7% 44% 6% -26.3%
≤30d 18 -20.1% -27.7% 44% 6% -26.3%
≤90d 53 -18.3% -26.1% 43% 25% -22.7%
all 53 -18.3% -26.1% 43% 25% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.1% 25% -22.7%
10% -33.1% 21% -30.1%
15% -39.6% 17% -36.8%
20% -45.5% 17% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses23 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage48d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 02 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 02 $7 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 02 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 02 $1 +$1 +166%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 02 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 02 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 02 $1 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 02 $2 $0 -13%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET May 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET May 01 $2 −$1 -56%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Apr 30 $1 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Apr 30 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Apr 30 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Apr 30 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Apr 30 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Apr 28 $2 +$3 +123%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Apr 28 $1 +$1 +118%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Apr 28 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Apr 28 $1 +$1 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $4 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $11 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $7 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 126 history records