Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B4 0xb4a6…faf4 sports 24 markets active 16h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$397 (+48%) realized +$422 · open −$25
Gross ROI / mkt +69% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +53% what you keep after slip
Net edge+53%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate35%8W / 15L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% +$42
crypto 31% +$129
other 28% −$36
world 5% −$18
finance 4% +$276
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+52.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +16.1% +5.1% 40% 40% -13.2%
≤30d 5 +16.1% +5.1% 40% 40% -13.2%
≤90d 5 +16.1% +5.1% 40% 40% -13.2%
all 23 +69.0% +52.9% 35% 30% +37.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +52.9% 30% +37.8%
10% +38.2% 26% +24.6%
15% +24.9% 26% +12.6%
20% +12.6% 26% +1.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +69% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +102% → late +38% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$32 · ×3.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$422
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses8 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage116d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June? Yes $32 $7 −$25 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $22 −$22 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $56 −$55 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $23 +$82 +365%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$8 +15%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 19 $100 +$67 +67%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO5) - ESL Pro League Mar 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming - Map 3 Winner Mar 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $25 −$25 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Mar 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 09 $34 +$276 +811%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 03 $18 −$18 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 23-March 1? Feb 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $22 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 28? Feb 27 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 27? Feb 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $50 +$75 +150%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Feb 26 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on February 25? Feb 25 $25 +$366 +1463%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 23 $12 +$25 +211%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 24? Feb 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 59¢ $20 15h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 30¢ $22 41h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $56 2d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June? BUY Yes $23 2d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June? BUY Yes $10 2d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 21¢ $23 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 17¢ $59 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 3d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 10¢ $167 93d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO5) - ESL Pro League BUY Aurora Gaming 18¢ $20 96d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming - Map 3 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 27¢ $20 96d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes $15 98d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10? BUY Yes 28¢ $25 101d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes $100 102d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 34¢ $50 102d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? SELL Yes 77¢ $310 103d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? BUY Yes $20 108d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL No $0 109d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? BUY Yes 12¢ $14 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $20 110d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 23-March 1? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 111d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 10¢ $18 111d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 71¢ $22 111d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 70¢ $22 111d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 28? BUY Yes $33 112d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 27? BUY Yes $100 113d
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? SELL Yes 100¢ $125 113d
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 40¢ $50 113d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY Yes $0 114d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY Yes $0 114d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.46 · official $7.46 (match) · 71 history records