Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:57:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4ab…8587 crypto 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$99 (-37%) realized −$99 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$156
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-62.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -58.7% -62.6% 30% 20% -63.5%
≤30d 10 -58.7% -62.6% 30% 20% -63.5%
≤90d 10 -58.7% -62.6% 30% 20% -63.5%
all 10 -58.7% -62.6% 30% 20% -63.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -62.6% 20% -63.5%
10% -66.2% 20% -67.0%
15% -69.5% 10% -70.2%
20% -72.5% 10% -73.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -60% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -59% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$26 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$99
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 26 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 26 $103 −$100 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records