Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:15:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4b0…9262 world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate40%12W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% −$1
other 16% +$1
finance 9% +$1
crypto 4% $0
tech 3% −$1
sports 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -2.0% -11.4% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 13 -0.9% -10.3% 15% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 14 -8.0% -16.8% 14% 0% -9.8%
all 30 -2.7% -12.0% 40% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 3% -9.9%
10% -20.4% 3% -18.6%
15% -28.1% 3% -26.4%
20% -35.1% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 61% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses12 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage466d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 72¢ 72¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $14 −$1 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $54 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $27 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $55 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $27 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $28 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $27 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $54 +$1 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 30 $55 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $1 $0 -6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $27 −$1 -2%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Jun 26 $9 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 23–30? May 31 $1 $0 +1%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 17 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Apr 05 $3 −$3 -82%
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. before April? Mar 27 $13 $0 -0%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dillon Danis win the match? Mar 26 $13 $0 -0%
Mike Huckabee confirmed as ambassador to Israel? Mar 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? Mar 25 $14 $0 -3%
Will Ontario resume electricity surcharge to the U.S. by next Friday? Mar 23 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Mar 19 $1 +$1 +106%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $87000 and $89000 on Mar 14? Mar 16 $12 $0 +3%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 13 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 11 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $27 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $13 7h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $14 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $27 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $27 16h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $27 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $27 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $14 28h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $13 28h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $27 31h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $19 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $15 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $4 15d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $28 15d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $27 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $27 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $27 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $19 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $8 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $28 16d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $28 16d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $28 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $27 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $27 18d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $8 19d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $20 19d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $27 19d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $27 20d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $27 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $30 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.82 · official $26.64 (match) · 88 history records